Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 260-319 tweets from March 20-27, 2026, with 280-299 tweets leading at 12.5% implied probability amid razor-thin margins across 260-319 ranges totaling over 35%. This sentiment stems from Musk's consistent hyperactive X cadence—averaging 35-45 posts daily in recent high-engagement weeks tied to Tesla earnings, SpaceX milestones, and political sparring—pushing totals toward 300 amid 2026's post-inauguration volatility if Trump aligns with DOGE initiatives. Key differentiators include unpredictable surges from viral memes or regulatory battles versus quieter periods during travel; historical March patterns show 10-15% variance from live events like Starship tests, keeping lower bins like 240-259 viable at 9.5% as hedges against lulls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated280-299 13%
260-279 12%
300-319 12%
320-339 11%
$726,901 Vol.
$726,901 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
4%
220-239
8%
240-259
10%
260-279
12%
280-299
13%
300-319
12%
320-339
11%
340-359
8%
360-379
7%
380-399
6%
400-419
3%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
280-299 13%
260-279 12%
300-319 12%
320-339 11%
$726,901 Vol.
$726,901 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
4%
220-239
8%
240-259
10%
260-279
12%
280-299
13%
300-319
12%
320-339
11%
340-359
8%
360-379
7%
380-399
6%
400-419
3%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 260-319 tweets from March 20-27, 2026, with 280-299 tweets leading at 12.5% implied probability amid razor-thin margins across 260-319 ranges totaling over 35%. This sentiment stems from Musk's consistent hyperactive X cadence—averaging 35-45 posts daily in recent high-engagement weeks tied to Tesla earnings, SpaceX milestones, and political sparring—pushing totals toward 300 amid 2026's post-inauguration volatility if Trump aligns with DOGE initiatives. Key differentiators include unpredictable surges from viral memes or regulatory battles versus quieter periods during travel; historical March patterns show 10-15% variance from live events like Starship tests, keeping lower bins like 240-259 viable at 9.5% as hedges against lulls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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