How accurate is Polymarket?

97.0%
4 hr accuracy
91.2%
1 month accuracy
0.0838
Brier Score

Accuracy prior to resolution

Shows how accurate Polymarket odds were at different points before they resolved.

4 Hrs97%12 Hrs96.6%1 Day96.1%1 Week94.4%1 Month91.2%

Expected vs Actual

Polymarket forecasts closely align with actual outcomes across all probability ranges.

Expected Percentage
Resolved Percentage
20%40%60%80%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Brier Score vs Volume

Lower is better. Brier scores show how accurate predictions really are β€” not just if they were correct, but how close the prediction was to being right.

0.020.040.060.08<1K1-5k5-10k10-25k25-50k50-100k100-250k250-500k500k-1M1M+

Resolution Composition

Shows the percentages of all polymarkets that ended up resolving to "Yes" or "No".

Yes - 25%
No - 75%

Methods

All metrics are calculated from resolved polymarkets, using price snapshots taken 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 12 hours, and 4 hours before resolution. Accuracy reflects how often the final leading outcome matched reality, and Brier scores measure the average squared error of predictions.

Data via Alex McCullough's Dune dashboards: How Accurate Is Polymarket and Polymarket Brier Score.

Frequently Asked Questions