A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, has sharply reduced trader consensus on Israeli military action against Beirut, reflecting de-escalation commitments amid ongoing monitoring by US and French forces. Pre-ceasefire airstrikes targeted Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut's southern suburbs, including the September 27 killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah, fueling prior escalation fears, but both sides have largely held fire despite minor reported violations. Key upcoming events include Lebanese army deployment to southern border areas and Israeli withdrawal from invaded positions by late January, per UN Resolution 1701, which could sway probabilities if tensions reignite over compliance disputes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIsrael military action against Beirut on...?
Israel military action against Beirut on...?
NEW
$25,911 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 18
98%
March 19
80%
March 20
74%
March 21
86%
March 22
69%
March 23
65%
March 24
72%
March 25
65%
March 26
78%
March 27
65%
March 28
65%
March 29
47%
March 30
52%
March 31
52%
$25,911 Vol.
March 18
$11,772 Vol.
98%
March 19
$8,151 Vol.
80%
March 20
$431 Vol.
74%
March 21
$1,993 Vol.
86%
March 22
$77 Vol.
69%
March 23
$11 Vol.
65%
March 24
$30 Vol.
72%
March 25
$3 Vol.
65%
March 26
$3,421 Vol.
78%
March 27
$3 Vol.
65%
March 28
$12 Vol.
65%
March 29
$3 Vol.
47%
March 30
$4 Vol.
52%
March 31
$3 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$25,911End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$25,911End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, has sharply reduced trader consensus on Israeli military action against Beirut, reflecting de-escalation commitments amid ongoing monitoring by US and French forces. Pre-ceasefire airstrikes targeted Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut's southern suburbs, including the September 27 killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah, fueling prior escalation fears, but both sides have largely held fire despite minor reported violations. Key upcoming events include Lebanese army deployment to southern border areas and Israeli withdrawal from invaded positions by late January, per UN Resolution 1701, which could sway probabilities if tensions reignite over compliance disputes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions