Ukraine Peace Deal

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$24M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

21%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

42%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$352K Vol.

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

March 31

Yes2%No98%

June 30

15%

Yes15%No85%

$1M Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

chance

Yes

$300K Vol.

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

16%

chance

Yes

$121K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

23%

chance

Yes

$361K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

33%

chance

Yes

$172K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

26%

chance

Yes

$502K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

15%

chance

Yes

$58K Vol.

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

26%

chance

Yes

$89K Vol.

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?

June 30

Yes7%No93%

December 31

26%

Yes26%No74%

$66K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

19%

chance

Yes

$30K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$101K Vol.

Monthly

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

March 31

Yes2%No98%

June 30

13%

Yes13%No87%

$214K Vol.

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

16%

chance

Yes

$11K Vol.

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

28%

chance

Yes

$56K Vol.

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

33%

chance

Yes

$81K Vol.

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

27%

chance

Yes

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