Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

100%

Yes100%No<1%

June 30

100%

Yes100%No<1%

$34M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$24M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

21%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$6M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

42%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$30M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$352K Vol.

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

12%

Yes12%No88%

34%

Yes34%No66%

$234K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

10%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Monthly

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes4%No96%

December 31

30%

Yes30%No70%

$3M Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes2%No98%

December 31

38%

Yes38%No62%

$690K Vol.

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

chance

Yes

$48K Vol.

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

19%

chance

Yes

$128K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

chance

Yes

$300K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

United Kingdom

82%

Yes82%No18%

Israel

57%

Yes57%No43%

$119K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

23%

chance

Yes

$90K Vol.

Monthly

Ukraine election called by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes1%No99%

June 30, 2026

Yes9%No91%

$1M Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$81K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes5%No95%

June 30, 2026

25%

Yes25%No75%

$2M Vol.

All

Iran

Oil

Ukraine

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Ukraine Peace Deal

Ukraine Map

Gaza

Israel

Sudan

China

Thailand-Cambodia

Middle East

Foreign Policy

India-Pakistan

South Korea

Yemen

Syria

Turkey

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

100%

Yes100%No<1%

June 30

100%

Yes100%No<1%

$34M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$24M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

21%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$6M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

42%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$30M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$352K Vol.

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

12%

Yes12%No88%

34%

Yes34%No66%

$234K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

10%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Monthly

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes4%No96%

December 31

30%

Yes30%No70%

$3M Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes2%No98%

December 31

38%

Yes38%No62%

$690K Vol.

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

chance

Yes

$48K Vol.

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

19%

chance

Yes

$128K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

chance

Yes

$300K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

United Kingdom

82%

Yes82%No18%

Israel

57%

Yes57%No43%

$119K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

23%

chance

Yes

$90K Vol.

Monthly

Ukraine election called by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes1%No99%

June 30, 2026

Yes9%No91%

$1M Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$81K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes5%No95%

June 30, 2026

25%

Yes25%No75%

$2M Vol.

Foreign Policy Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

US strike on Mexico by...?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Ukraine election called by...?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

US strike on Mexico by...?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Ukraine election called by...?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?