Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from March 21-23, 2026—a weekend stretch—with 32.5% implied probability, reflecting his typical 20-30 daily average amid steady X engagement on Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. Recent surges, like 50+ posts per day during 2024 election fervor, underscore volatility, yet the moderate cluster edges out lower (40-64 at 23%) and higher bins (90-114 at 19%) due to no confirmed events for that period, unlike past launches or controversies. Key differentiators include potential Trump administration overlaps or Neuralink reveals boosting volume, while quieter weekends historically cap extremes; traders eye real-time news cycles as the swing factor in this tightly matched field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated65-89 31%
40-64 25%
90-114 19%
115-139 11%
$27,116 Vol.
$27,116 Vol.
<40
7%
40-64
25%
65-89
31%
90-114
19%
115-139
11%
140-164
6%
165-189
2%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 31%
40-64 25%
90-114 19%
115-139 11%
$27,116 Vol.
$27,116 Vol.
<40
7%
40-64
25%
65-89
31%
90-114
19%
115-139
11%
140-164
6%
165-189
2%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from March 21-23, 2026—a weekend stretch—with 32.5% implied probability, reflecting his typical 20-30 daily average amid steady X engagement on Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. Recent surges, like 50+ posts per day during 2024 election fervor, underscore volatility, yet the moderate cluster edges out lower (40-64 at 23%) and higher bins (90-114 at 19%) due to no confirmed events for that period, unlike past launches or controversies. Key differentiators include potential Trump administration overlaps or Neuralink reveals boosting volume, while quieter weekends historically cap extremes; traders eye real-time news cycles as the swing factor in this tightly matched field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions