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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus heavily favors 19°C as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 16, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on this mild outcome amid stable high-pressure systems over the eastern Mediterranean. Historical March data from the Israel Meteorological Service shows average highs near 19.5°C, aligning with current projections of light northerly winds and minimal solar heating under partly cloudy skies. Recent updates confirm no heatwave signals, with sea surface temperatures supporting typical spring cooling. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly Shamal wind shift advecting warmer desert air, potentially pushing highs to 20-23°C, though model spread remains tight at ±1-2°C, underscoring low upset risk.

23°C or higher

22°C

13°C or below

14°C

15°C

16°C

18°C

19°C

21°C

17°C

20°C

Tel Aviv Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus heavily favors 56-57°F (39.5% implied probability) for New York City's highest temperature on March 16, propelled by ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models converging on this mild range due to a persistent high-pressure ridge enabling warm air advection from the south. National Weather Service guidance reinforces this, pinpointing 56-57°F at Central Park observatory—the market's resolution benchmark—amid light winds and partial sunshine. Recent 12z model runs have sharpened these odds, eroding support for cooler 54-55°F (18.1%) as departing Arctic air masses yield to seasonal norms. March climatology, with typical highs near 52°F, underscores the positioning of 58-59°F (18.5%) as a plausible upper outlier under clear skies.

45°F or below

54-55°F

58-59°F

50-51°F

56-57°F

60-61°F

62-63°F

64°F or higher

46-47°F

48-49°F

52-53°F

NYC Daily Weather

Highest temperature in NYC on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Traders overwhelmingly back 13°C (99.6% implied probability) as Toronto's highest temperature on March 16, driven by converging forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs peaking precisely at 13°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble predictions show tight clustering around 12-14°C, with low wind shear and stable upper-air patterns minimizing deviations typical in mid-March's variable synoptic conditions. Historical data reinforces reliability, as short-range (24-48 hour) temperature forecasts for Toronto achieve 90%+ accuracy within 2°C. Challenges could arise from an unforeseen warm front or nocturnal inversion breakdown pushing 14°C+, but current geopotential height analyses indicate scant risk.

6°C

7°C

9°C

15°C or higher

8°C

10°C

11°C

12°C

5°C or below

13°C

Toronto Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Chicago high temperature of 30-31°F on March 16 (99.1% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting persistent Arctic air under a deep upper-level trough over the Midwest. Verified short-range guidance from NOAA's GFS and HRRR models aligns closely, projecting light snow showers and northwest winds reinforcing subfreezing surface conditions after overnight lows near 20°F. Historical March data shows Chicago averages 42°F highs, but current jet stream positioning suppresses variability. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen ridge amplification allowing southerly flow—evident in only 1-2% of ensemble members—or microscale urban heat effects, though these rarely exceed 2-3°F in such setups.

30-31°F

34-35°F

22-23°F

20-21°F

24-25°F

26-27°F

17°F or below

18-19°F

28-29°F

32-33°F

36°F or higher

Chicago Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Chicago on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 12°C as London's highest temperature on March 16, driven by the UK Met Office's latest forecast models projecting a daytime maximum of exactly 12°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Ensemble predictions from ECMWF and GFS align closely, showing mild Atlantic airflow capping warmth amid typical mid-March climatology—historical averages hover around 11-12°C at Heathrow. This positioning reflects high model agreement within 1°C, minimizing upside risk. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen ridge of high pressure ushering southerly winds or urban heat island amplification pushing to 13-14°C, though such deviations occur in under 5% of similar setups per reanalysis data.

London Daily Weather

Highest temperature in London on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATL.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high of 68-69°F in Atlanta on March 16, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which converge on mid-60s peaks amid a cool northerly flow and lingering effects of a recent cold front. National Weather Service point forecasts align closely, projecting highs near 68°F under partly cloudy skies with light winds, consistent with Atlanta's climatological March average of 65°F and current upper-air patterns showing a deep trough over the Southeast. This positioning reflects low model spread and historical accuracy of short-range guidance. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen ridge amplification bringing warm advection, potentially pushing temps to 72°F+, or a stalled boundary trapping heat, though current soundings and dewpoints make such deviations unlikely below 5% probability.

55°F or below

66-67°F

68-69°F

74°F or higher

70-71°F

72-73°F

64-65°F

Atlanta Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Atlanta on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts position 12°C as the market-implied frontrunner at 39.5% for Seoul's highest temperature on March 17, reflecting model consensus from ECMWF and GFS predicting mild highs of 11-13°C under southerly winds and weakening cold fronts. Recent surface observations show daytime maxima climbing from 9-10°C earlier this week, aligning with mid-March climatological averages of 11.5°C while urban heat island effects boost localized peaks. The 29% odds on 13°C or higher gained traction after yesterday's updated runs indicating Pacific high pressure dominance, edging out 11°C (22.5%) as transient cloud cover recedes, though short-range uncertainty persists in boundary layer mixing.

3°C or below

13°C or higher

4°C

5°C

Seoul Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Seoul on March 17?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 14°C as Ankara's highest temperature on March 16, driven by synchronized forecasts from authoritative models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs peaking at 13-14°C amid persistent cool northerly flows and light cloud cover. Turkish State Meteorological Service data aligns, showing typical mid-March anomalies rarely exceeding 2°C above climatological norms of 12-13°C, reinforced by recent soundings indicating stable atmospheric conditions. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly wind shift or solar heating surge under clear skies, potentially pushing to 15-16°C, though ensemble probabilities assign under 1% odds to such outliers based on model spread and historical verification rates exceeding 90% for short-range temperature forecasts.

16°C or higher

6°C or below

Ankara Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Ankara on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 33°C as Lucknow's highest temperature on March 16, driven by ensemble weather models from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and global forecasts like ECMWF converging on this peak amid typical pre-monsoon conditions. Historical data shows Lucknow's March maxima averaging 31-34°C, with current upper-air patterns—stable high pressure and low humidity—supporting daytime heating to this level without extremes. Recent satellite observations confirm minimal cloud interference, solidifying model confidence. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen dust storm or northerly winds introducing cooler air, though probabilities remain low (<5%) per probabilistic forecasts, keeping market odds firmly anchored.

32°C

34°C

38°C

40°C

36°C

31°C or below

33°C

35°C

37°C

39°C

41°C or higher

Lucknow Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader sentiment on Miami's highest temperature March 16 hinges on a razor-thin model consensus around 85-86°F, pitting 84-85°F (47.5%) against 86-87°F (46.5%), with NOAA's latest forecast calling for a high near 85°F under partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes. Key differentiators include ensemble spreads: ECMWF guidance leans cooler at 84°F, emphasizing marine layer persistence, while GFS runs edge hotter toward 86°F, factoring amplified convective heating from warm Gulf Stream waters. Recent updates show shrinking uncertainty from fading El Niño influences, though historical March norms (79°F average high) and occasional 5-7°F spikes above baseline add volatility to this closely matched race.

77°F or below

92-93°F

96°F or higher

84-85°F

80-81°F

82-83°F

88-89°F

78-79°F

86-87°F

90-91°F

94-95°F

Miami Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Miami on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus on Shanghai's highest temperature reaching 12°C (53.5% implied probability) or 13°C (35.0%) stems from the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project afternoon highs in this range amid persistent cool northerly winds and light cloud cover on March 17. Historical March data from the China Meteorological Administration shows average maxima around 12°C, with recent surface observations indicating nighttime lows near 7°C setting up mild daytime warming under stable high-pressure influence. No tropical influences or fronts are expected, per NOAA global models, keeping 11°C (6.0%) as a cooler outlier unless unexpected marine layer thickens. Updated runs tomorrow could shift odds slightly.

Shanghai Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 17?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 56°F or higher in Seattle on March 16 at 77.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting upper 50s amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge ushering warm air advection from the California interior. Seattle's March climatological average high hovers around 55°F, but current upper-air patterns—confirmed by recent GFS and ECMWF model runs—feature southerly flow overriding typical cool marine layers, positioning 54-55°F (18.5%) as the next likely bin. Ensemble forecasts have trended 1-2°F warmer since yesterday, reducing odds for cooler 52-53°F outcomes (2.5%); watch for afternoon updates as surface observations refine peak heating estimates.

37°F or below

38-39°F

42-43°F

56°F or higher

40-41°F

44-45°F

Seattle Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Seattle on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 12°C as Paris's highest temperature on March 16, driven by converging ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which project mild conditions under a persistent cool northerly flow with highs stabilizing around 11-13°C per Météo-France outlooks. Historical data supports this, with Paris's mid-March average maximums near 11.5°C and few exceedances beyond 14°C in recent decades absent warm anomalies. Recent model runs show minimal spread, reinforcing 99% implied odds. Realistic challenges include an unexpected Atlantic ridge breakdown introducing southerly winds, potentially spiking temps 2-3°C higher, though low-probability given current jet stream patterns and climatological baselines.

Paris Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Paris on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 10°C as Munich's highest temperature on March 16, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD), which converge on a daytime maximum of 9-10°C under persistent cool northerly flows and light cloud cover. Historical March data for Munich shows average highs around 9°C, with current synoptic patterns—high pressure over Scandinavia blocking warmer Atlantic air—reinforcing this outlook, as verified by radiosonde observations and surface analyses. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen breakdown of the blocking high allowing southerly advection for a 1-2°C spike, or microscale urban heat effects at the Central Station measurement site pushing readings to 11°C, though model spread remains tight below 12°C.

Munich Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Munich on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 50°F or higher in New York City on March 17 (66% implied probability), driven by the latest NOAA National Weather Service forecast projecting a mild 52°F under sunny skies amid building high pressure. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF reinforce this with mean highs in the low 50s, aligning with March's historical average of 51°F but boosted by recent warm-air advection following a cold snap. Lower bins like 48-49°F (18%) reflect model spread uncertainty, while 46-47°F (3.6%) trails amid low risk of renewed chill from upstream troughs, though updates through March 16 could shift odds.

50°F or higher

31°F or below

36-37°F

Highest temperature in NYC on March 17?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus heavily favors a Dallas high of 46-47°F at 46.7% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on mid-40s peaks amid a potent cold front's lingering effects. Northerly winds sustaining cold air advection, combined with persistent low-level clouds limiting solar heating, position this as the frontrunner, with recent observations confirming overnight lows dipping into the mid-30s. The 48-49°F bin at 20.5% reflects slight model spread allowing marginal diurnal recovery, while 44-45°F (7.8%) accounts for worst-case overcast scenarios. March climatology typically sees highs near 67°F, but this anomalous pattern—tied to a deep upper trough—has compressed outcomes into a tight 44-49°F range ahead of afternoon NWS updates.

43°F or below

62°F or higher

Dallas Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Dallas on March 16?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Trader consensus favors 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 39.5% implied probability, driven by the extraordinarily high bar set by 2024—the warmest year ever observed per NOAA and Copernicus Climate Change Service data—and forecasts of persistent La Niña conditions cooling global temperatures through 2025-2026. Anthropogenic warming from greenhouse gases ensures 2026 stays in the top ranks, with the ten hottest years all occurring since 2015, but ENSO variability tempers extremes; NOAA's outlook projects neutral-to-weak La Niña into mid-2025, reducing odds of surpassing 2024 (19%) while boosting 4th-place chances (28.5%). Recent IRI/CPC updates reinforce this multi-year cooling cycle post-2023-2024 El Niño.

6 or lower

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus favors 20°C as Wellington's highest temperature on March 17 at 48.5% implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast predicting a daytime high of exactly 20°C under a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing extremes. Supporting this, seasonal climatology shows March highs averaging 19.8°C from NIWA records, with recent observations indicating mild southerlies moderating warmth after a cooler spell earlier this week. The 21°C option (27%) reflects slight upside risk from potential northerly gusts in ECMWF ensemble models, while 19°C (19%) accounts for downside from coastal fog persistence. Updated GFS runs released yesterday reinforce this tight clustering around 20°C, narrowing uncertainty ahead of the date.

Wellington Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Wellington on March 17?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus favors 14°C (38.5%) over 15°C (31%) and 16°C (13.5%) for London's highest temperature on March 17, driven by the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mild highs under a high-pressure ridge ushering in Atlantic mild air. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: UKMO leans cooler at 14°C due to anticipated stratocumulus cloud cover suppressing daytime heating, while GFS outliers hint at 16°C if clearer skies prevail amid weak southerly flow. Historical March maxima average 11-12°C, but urban heat island effects amplify readings at Heathrow (resolution site); uncertainty stems from jet stream wobbles, with tomorrow's 12Z updates pivotal for position adjustments.

18°C or higher

8°C or below

Highest temperature in London on March 17?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus heavily favors 32°C as Sao Paulo's highest temperature on March 16, driven by aligned ensemble forecasts from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS models projecting peaks around that mark under partly cloudy conditions with moderate humidity and light southerly winds. Historical March data from the official Mirante station averages 27-29°C highs, but recent developments—a stable high-pressure ridge and urban heat island amplification—support this positioning, with low model spread indicating high confidence. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of hotter continental air masses shifting probabilities toward 33°C+, or minor discrepancies in automated vs. manual station readings, though such deviations occur in under 5% of similar setups per climatological baselines.

25°C

28°C

29°C

27°C

30°C

31°C

34°C or higher

24°C or below

26°C

Sao Paulo Daily Weather

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 16?

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 33°C or below in Buenos Aires on March 17 (98.9% implied probability), driven by aligned forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, predicting peaks around 29-32°C amid mild autumn conditions with light southerly winds and scattered clouds. Historical March data supports this, with average highs near 24°C and exceedances above 33°C rare (less than 10% of days since 1961). A challenging scenario would require an abrupt shift to northerly foehn-like winds or a blocking high-pressure ridge fueling adiabatic warming, though current upper-air patterns show no such signals, keeping upside risks minimal at under 1%.

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Global

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?