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Elections·Global Elections

South Australia Parliamentary Election Winner

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Elections·Global Elections

South Australia Parliamentary Election Winner

Labor 99.6%

One Nation <1%

Liberal <1%

Greens <1%

Polymarket

$84,400 Vol.

Labor 99.6%

One Nation <1%

Liberal <1%

Greens <1%

Polymarket

$84,400 Vol.

Market icon

Labor

$51,454 Vol.

100%

Market icon

Liberal

$12,344 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

One Nation

$13,158 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Greens

$7,444 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.

The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia.

This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/).

Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.
Volume
$84,400
End Date
Mar 21, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.
The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.

Labor's near-certain status in the South Australia parliamentary election market stems from its landslide victory on March 19, 2022, securing 27 of 47 House of Assembly seats—a gain of 15—to form a majority government under Premier Peter Malinauskas, while Liberals slumped to 16 seats. Official results from the Electoral Commission of South Australia confirm all seats, with no recounts or disputes pending, driving trader consensus to price Labor at 99.6%. Incumbency advantages, strong economic management perceptions, and opposition disarray bolster this dominance. Realistic challenges include rare legal overturns of results or sudden scandals, but absent such catalysts, minor parties like One Nation, Liberals, and Greens remain negligible threats.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"South Australia Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Labor" at 100%, followed by "Liberal" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "South Australia Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $84.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "South Australia Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Australia Parliamentary Election Winner" is "Labor" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Liberal" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Australia Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.