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Elections·Global Elections

Next Prime Minister of Nepal

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next Prime Minister of Nepal

Balendra “Balen” Shah 99.0%

Rabi Lamichhane <1%

KP Sharma Oli <1%

Gagan Kumar Thapa <1%

Polymarket

$2,053,127 Vol.

Balendra “Balen” Shah 99.0%

Rabi Lamichhane <1%

KP Sharma Oli <1%

Gagan Kumar Thapa <1%

Polymarket

$2,053,127 Vol.

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Balendra “Balen” Shah

$1,254,352 Vol.

99%

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Rabi Lamichhane

$111,760 Vol.

<1%

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KP Sharma Oli

$165,411 Vol.

<1%

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Gagan Kumar Thapa

$207,859 Vol.

<1%

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Prachanda

$227,569 Vol.

<1%

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Kulman Ghising

$42,458 Vol.

<1%

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Harka Sampang

$43,717 Vol.

<1%

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Madhav Kumar Nepal

$0 Vol.

<1%

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Sushila Karki

$0 Vol.

<1%

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,053,127
End Date
Mar 5, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 16, 2026, 11:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Balendra Shah's commanding 99% implied probability as Nepal's next prime minister stems from his widespread popularity as Kathmandu's independent mayor, fueled by anti-corruption efforts and youth appeal amid chronic coalition instability that toppled Prachanda's government in July 2024, installing KP Oli. Traders see Shah's grassroots momentum as a potential disruptor in fragmented parliament, where no party holds a clear majority, reflected in the wisdom of crowds pricing other figures like Lamichhane or Oli near zero. Realistic challenges include parliamentary confidence votes favoring UML-NC alliances, endorsement shifts, or legal hurdles for independents lacking seats, though no dissolution or election is scheduled soon.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Nepal" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Balendra “Balen” Shah" at 99%, followed by "Rabi Lamichhane" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Nepal" has generated $2.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Nepal," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Nepal" is "Balendra “Balen” Shah" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rabi Lamichhane" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Nepal" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.