Paul Skenes leads trader consensus for the 2026 NL Cy Young at 27%, but Mitch Keller (23.2%) and Jacob Misiorowski (21.1%) keep the market bunched due to their shared elite velocity, strikeout potential, and NL Central exposure. Skenes' 2024 rookie dominance—1.96 ERA, 170 strikeouts—fuels optimism for ace maturation, while Keller's consistent command (3.91 ERA career) and Pirates rotation synergy provide stability. Misiorowski, Milwaukee's top prospect with a 102 mph fastball and plus slider, surges on minor-league wipeouts (0.69 ERA in 2024 Double-A), signaling breakout upside. Health uncertainties, rotation competition, and the division's modest pitching depth heighten volatility, reflecting crowdsourced bets on youth trajectories over veterans like Yamamoto or Ohtani.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPaul Skenes 23%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 12%
Cristopher Sanchez 11%
Nolan McLean 6.1%
Paul Skenes
28%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
12%
Cristopher Sanchez
11%
Nolan McLean
6%
Brandon Woodruff
6%
Hunter Greene
6%
Nick Lodolo
5%
Logan Webb
5%
Chris Sale
4%
Zack Wheeler
3%
Blake Snell
3%
Jacob Misiorowski
21%
Shohei Ohtani
8%
Freddy Peralta
2%
Tyler Glasnow
2%
Eury Perez
2%
Michael King
2%
Jesus Luzardo
2%
Spencer Schwellenbach
2%
Spencer Strider
2%
Nick Pivetta
2%
Mitch Keller
23%
Paul Skenes 23%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 12%
Cristopher Sanchez 11%
Nolan McLean 6.1%
Paul Skenes
28%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
12%
Cristopher Sanchez
11%
Nolan McLean
6%
Brandon Woodruff
6%
Hunter Greene
6%
Nick Lodolo
5%
Logan Webb
5%
Chris Sale
4%
Zack Wheeler
3%
Blake Snell
3%
Jacob Misiorowski
21%
Shohei Ohtani
8%
Freddy Peralta
2%
Tyler Glasnow
2%
Eury Perez
2%
Michael King
2%
Jesus Luzardo
2%
Spencer Schwellenbach
2%
Spencer Strider
2%
Nick Pivetta
2%
Mitch Keller
23%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Paul Skenes leads trader consensus for the 2026 NL Cy Young at 27%, but Mitch Keller (23.2%) and Jacob Misiorowski (21.1%) keep the market bunched due to their shared elite velocity, strikeout potential, and NL Central exposure. Skenes' 2024 rookie dominance—1.96 ERA, 170 strikeouts—fuels optimism for ace maturation, while Keller's consistent command (3.91 ERA career) and Pirates rotation synergy provide stability. Misiorowski, Milwaukee's top prospect with a 102 mph fastball and plus slider, surges on minor-league wipeouts (0.69 ERA in 2024 Double-A), signaling breakout upside. Health uncertainties, rotation competition, and the division's modest pitching depth heighten volatility, reflecting crowdsourced bets on youth trajectories over veterans like Yamamoto or Ohtani.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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