Trader consensus on the La Paz governor election in Bolivia heavily favors Luis Antonio Revilla at 41.5% implied probability, reflecting his lead in recent polls as the popular La Paz city mayor from the Sol.bo alliance, leveraging incumbency and urban support. Felix Patzi trails at 16.3%, buoyed by name recognition from his prior term but hampered by lower rural backing amid fragmented opposition. Minor candidates like Richard Gómez and indigenous leaders René Yahuasi and Santos Quispe split the Aymara vote, keeping their odds under 10%. Recent developments include a mid-October poll by Ciesmori showing Revilla at 38-42%, unchanged national MAS infighting sidelining party heavyweights, and upcoming debates that could shift rural turnout ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLa Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
La Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
Luis Antonio Revilla 41.0%
Felix Patzi 19.3%
Richard Andrés Gómez 6.9%
René Yahuasi Calamani 6.2%
$20,955 Vol.
$20,955 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
41%
Felix Patzi
24%
Richard Andrés Gómez
7%
René Yahuasi Calamani
6%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
1%
Gualberto Cusi
1%
Santos Quispe Quispe
6%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
<1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Germán Riveros
<1%
Rafael Quispe Flores
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Fidel Chura
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
Luis Antonio Revilla 41.0%
Felix Patzi 19.3%
Richard Andrés Gómez 6.9%
René Yahuasi Calamani 6.2%
$20,955 Vol.
$20,955 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
41%
Felix Patzi
24%
Richard Andrés Gómez
7%
René Yahuasi Calamani
6%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
1%
Gualberto Cusi
1%
Santos Quispe Quispe
6%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
<1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Germán Riveros
<1%
Rafael Quispe Flores
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Fidel Chura
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Market Opened: Jan 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the La Paz governor election in Bolivia heavily favors Luis Antonio Revilla at 41.5% implied probability, reflecting his lead in recent polls as the popular La Paz city mayor from the Sol.bo alliance, leveraging incumbency and urban support. Felix Patzi trails at 16.3%, buoyed by name recognition from his prior term but hampered by lower rural backing amid fragmented opposition. Minor candidates like Richard Gómez and indigenous leaders René Yahuasi and Santos Quispe split the Aymara vote, keeping their odds under 10%. Recent developments include a mid-October poll by Ciesmori showing Revilla at 38-42%, unchanged national MAS infighting sidelining party heavyweights, and upcoming debates that could shift rural turnout ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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