Fed Rates Odds &amp; Predictions | Polymarket

$305M Vol.

Monthly

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

94%

Yes94%No6%

Judy Shelton

Yes3%No97%

$4M Vol.

Fed decision in April?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

10%

Yes10%No90%

$6M Vol.

Monthly

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause

55%

Yes55%No45%

Pause–Pause–Cut

23%

Yes23%No77%

$512K Vol.

Daily

Fed rate cut by...?

March Meeting

April Meeting

13%

$2M Vol.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

16%

Yes16%No84%

1 (25 bps)

27%

Yes27%No73%

$9M Vol.

Fed Decision in June?

50+ bps decrease

Yes5%No95%

25 bps decrease

38%

Yes38%No62%

$1M Vol.

Monthly

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

99%

Yes99%No1%

Cut–Pause–Cut

$2M Vol.

Daily

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

≤1.0%

1.25

$503K Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

May 14

$2M Vol.

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

12%

Yes12%No88%

$15K Vol.

Daily

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

chance

Yes

$227K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.4%

13%

4.5%

$171K Vol.

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

99%

chance

Yes

$16K Vol.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

12%

chance

Yes

$138K Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↓ 3.25%

90%

Yes90%No10%

↓ 3.0%

70%

Yes70%No30%

$645K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.4%

65%

Yes65%No35%

4.5%

Yes48%No52%

$50K Vol.

Weekly

Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?

79%

chance

Yes

NEW

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Pause–Pause–Pause

83%

Yes83%No17%

Pause–Pause–Cut

13%

$145K Vol.

Daily

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

94%

chance

Yes

$53K Vol.

All

Trade War

Fed Rates

Inflation

Macro Indicators

GDP

Global Rates

Taxes

Treasuries

TSA

Housing

Fed Rates

Fed decision in March?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

25 bps decrease

$305M Vol.

Monthly

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

94%

Yes94%No6%

Judy Shelton

Yes3%No97%

$4M Vol.

Fed decision in April?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

10%

Yes10%No90%

$6M Vol.

Monthly

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause

55%

Yes55%No45%

Pause–Pause–Cut

23%

Yes23%No77%

$512K Vol.

Daily

Fed rate cut by...?

March Meeting

April Meeting

13%

$2M Vol.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

16%

Yes16%No84%

1 (25 bps)

27%

Yes27%No73%

$9M Vol.

Fed Decision in June?

50+ bps decrease

Yes5%No95%

25 bps decrease

38%

Yes38%No62%

$1M Vol.

Monthly

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

99%

Yes99%No1%

Cut–Pause–Cut

$2M Vol.

Daily

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

≤1.0%

1.25

$503K Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

May 14

$2M Vol.

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

12%

Yes12%No88%

$15K Vol.

Daily

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

chance

Yes

$227K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.4%

13%

4.5%

$171K Vol.

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

99%

chance

Yes

$16K Vol.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

12%

chance

Yes

$138K Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↓ 3.25%

90%

Yes90%No10%

↓ 3.0%

70%

Yes70%No30%

$645K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.4%

65%

Yes65%No35%

4.5%

Yes48%No52%

$50K Vol.

Weekly

Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?

79%

chance

Yes

NEW

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Pause–Pause–Pause

83%

Yes83%No17%

Pause–Pause–Cut

13%